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INFLUENCES ON WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKETS
News of the meeting between Robert Lighthizer (the US Trade Representative) and Cecilia Malmstrom (the EU Commissioner for Trade) helped to boost risk sentiment, after a press release from the USTR confirmed the meeting as being “constructive” and that professional staff will next month “hold further discussions on identifying and reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade”. This indicates that the trade war between the US and Europe is on hold for the moment. However, the US-China trade war situ-ation seems to have regressed after President Trump hinted in a tweet that the next round of tariffs on imports from China could come soon, saying that “we will soon be taking in billions in tariffs”. Reuters then reported that China will not “surrender” to the US demands on trade talks, according to a state paper released on Friday.
US: PPI AND CPI DATA UNDERSHOOT EXPECTATIONS
In the US, headline PPI data for August came in at -0.1% MoM (vs. 0.2% expected) largely due to the trade component, which saw the annual reading fall to 2.8% YoY from 3.3%. However, the healthcare component rose 0.18% MoM (suggesting a solid read-through to PCE) and the ex-food, energy and trade reading rose one-tenth to 2.9% YoY. August CPI came in at an unrounded 0.0818% MoM, under the 0.20% expected. As a result, the annual rate dipped to 2.2% YoY, back to levels last seen in May. The details showed that a large drop in apparel inflation (the larg-est since the 1940s) was a big contributor to the soft print, while medical services inflation also fell by the second most since 1975. The 3-month annualised readings is now down to 1.96% and the 6-month annualised reading is down to 1.88% respectively.
UK: JULY GDP EXCEEDS CONSENSUS
The UK’s real GDP grew 0.3% MoM in July, matching the fastest pace since 2016 and beating forecasts of 0.1% MoM. Trade data was positive and industrial production was slightly softer than expected, sug-gesting that the strong performance was driven by domestic demand. Regarding Brexit developments, the UK and EU are preparing to formally sign off on a Brexit withdrawal agreement, potentially in the second week of November.
CHINA: AUGUST DATA MIXED
China’s August retail sales came in slightly better than expected 9.0% YoY (vs. +8.8% forecast), industrial production was in line at 6.1% YoY, and fixed asset investment came in lower than anticipated at 5.3% YoY (vs. 5.6% expected).
TURKEY: Q2 GROWTH LOWER THAN EXPECTED, REPO RATE HIKED
Turkey’s second quarter GDP growth printed weaker than expected at 5.2% YoY, down from 7.3% in the first quarter. Analysts note that fiscal policy has turned less supportive, financial conditions have tight-ened, the services sector slowed, and construction came to almost a full stop. The latest data in Q3 suggest tougher times ahead as the 41% YTD lira depreciation is felt. 2018 and 2019 growth estimates have been adjusted to 3.1% and 1.5% respectively. The central bank then hiked up the one-week repo rate to 24%; the 625bp hike completely overshot the consensus expectation for 21%. The overnight and late liquidity window lending rate were also hiked by 625bps to 25.5% and 27% respectively.
INFLUENCES ON WEEKLY SA MARKETS
The JSE fell 0.65% over the week, with industrials losing 1.35%. The rand strengthened by 2% to close at R14.94 to the US dollar on Friday. The MSCI global index rose 1.36% by the end of the week, and the MSCI EM index gained 0.54%.
HOUSE PRICE GROWTH WEAKENS IN AUGUST
The Standard Bank house price index (HPI) declined further in August, to 3.4% YoY (down from 3.9% in July, revised from 3.7% YoY). YTD average annual growth has been dragged down to 4.6%, flat from the annual average growth in 2017. However on a month-on-month basis, the HPI has risen by 0.5% for a third month, taking the national median price to R962k in August. Analysts note that the weaker house price growth is reflective of a weak labour market, cautious advancing of mortgages, tax hikes and record fuel prices.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE FALLS IN Q3 AND AUGUST
The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to 38 points in the third quarter, from 39 points in Q2. Not a single sector in the third quarter scored above the neutral level of 50 – a concerning development. Elsewhere, the SACCI BCI fell in August to 90.5 pts from 94.7 pts in July, following lower merchandise export volumes, a weaker rand and higher inflation.
MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION INCREASES IN JULY
Stats SA revealed that manufacturing production increased by 2.9% in July, boosted by growth in vehi-cle and parts sales. Expectations were for a more mod-est 1% rise. Food and beverages added 5.8 and 1.5 percentage points respectively. Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 1.9% in the three months ended July 2018, compared with the previous three months. Petroleum, chemicals, metal products and machinery were some of the biggest contributors to growth. Seasonally adjusted manufac-turing production increased by 1.6% in July 2018 compared to June 2018.
RETAIL SALES FOR JULY IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS
July’s retail sales growth was in line with forecasts at 1.3% YoY. The highest annual growth rates were recorded in retailers of furniture, appliances and equipment, who saw sales growth of 6.9%, followed by clothing and footwear, which grew 3%. Sales of hard-ware, paint and glass declined 5.1%, while sales in specialised stores of food, beverages and tobacco fell 2.1%. Retail sales continue to be under pressure, some of it due to rising fuel costs and VAT increases that took effect in April.
MINING PRODUCTION FALLS IN JULY
Mining production fell 5.2% YoY in July, far below consensus. Iron ore fell 17.4%, gold 15% and platinum group metals 5.8%. Seasonally adjusted mining fell 8.6% in July, which followed month-on-month falls of 5.4% in June and 5.3% in May. The mining sector has been negatively impacted by the trade war between the US and China, the latter a major importer of commodities. A falling platinum price and volatile rand have also added to the pressure. Locally, policy uncer-tainty over the Mining Charter, declining productivity and rising costs, have also hampered the sector.
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Megan joined the Brenthurst Wealth team in March 2026 as an Administrative and Fiduciary Services Assistant at our Val de Vie Office in the Western Cape. Prior to joining Brenthurst, Megan gained three years of experience in the retail sector, where she developed management and client service skills.
I obtained my National Diploma in Financial Information Systems from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in 1999 and have worked in the wealth management industry since January 2000. Over the years, I have gained extensive experience in various roles, including Portfolio Manager Assistant, Planner Assistant, and Paraplanner.
Esmarelda Isaacs-Andreas joined the Brenthurst Wealth Stellenbosch office in October 2025, taking on the dual role of Receptionist and Fiduciary Administrator.
I obtained my National Diploma in Financial Information Systems from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in 1999 and have worked in the wealth management industry since January 2000. Over the years, I have gained extensive experience in various roles, including Portfolio Manager Assistant, Planner Assistant, and Paraplanner.
Ashley joined Brenthurst Wealth in January 2025 as Office Administrative Assistant and Receptionist for the Stellenbosch Office.
René Heystek joined Brenthurst Wealth in November 2023, as receptionist and administrative assistant in the newly established George/Garden Route office.
Michelle Heystek has built a career in the financial services over the last two decades, after obtaining her B.Com degree in Financial Management in 2005. Once she joined Brenthurst in 2006, she continued her academic journey, obtaining her Certificate in Wealth Management from INSETA in 2007, followed by a Postgraduate Diploma in Financial Planning from the University of the Free State. In 2008, she earned the Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) designation.
Anelle joined Brenthurst Wealth as a Receptionist and Administrative Assistant to Brian Butchart in the Cape Town office in December 2023. She has a wealth of knowledge from working as a liaison between Financial Advisers and clients at TMA and Absa Investment Management Services (Aims) since 1998. She obtained her B. com degree from the University of Port Elizabeth in 1997.
ADMITTED ATTORNEY | FINANCIAL PLANNER & HEAD OF BRENTHURST FOURWAYS
Sanet was appointed in April 2020, joining our Cape Town team as an Executive Administration Assistant to Renee Eagar. She has been in the financial services industry since 1990. Her previous experience includes positions at Sanlam, BJM and ABSA. She spent her last 12 years working at Alexander Forbes Private Client Wealth as a Senior Wealth Management Assistant. She has received numerous accolades over the years which include but not limited to, Alexander Forbes Client Service Excellence – Silver award in 2014,2015 and 2017. Sanet has also obtained her Certificate in Wealth Management (NQF 5) in 2012 and achieved “Best Student of the Year” from Moonstone.
Maria Smit is a Certified Financial Planner® with over 10 years of experience in the financial planning industry.
