By Leslie Greyling*
It’s been a year of headline-making market swings. In April, global investors panicked after US President Trump announced sweeping tariffs. The S&P 500 dropped sharply, losing around 10% in just days. Then, almost as fast, the market turned. A 90-day pause triggered a rally, and by July, the S&P 500 was setting new all-time highs.
As you can see in these graphs, April’s sell-off and rebound was global as the shock announcement stoked fear and uncertainty.
Anyone who tried to time the market – selling during the panic and waiting for things to “settle” – would have missed the rebound. And that mistake can be costly.
The real risk of missing out
Let’s go beyond theory. What actually happens when you try to avoid downturns, but end up missing the best days in the market?
A powerful study looked at 5 680 trading days in SA equity market using the Capped SWIX, spliced with the ALSI data, over 20 years of daily returns.
It compared what your returns would have been if you simply stayed invested – versus what happened if you missed just a few of the best-performing days.
The results are striking:
- An investor who stayed invested earned an annualised return of 16.38%.
- Someone who missed the best 30 days earned only 14.58% per year.
That 1.8% difference might not sound like much – but over 20 years, it’s massive.
If you invested R100 and earned 16.38% per annum, you’d end up with R2 077.62 – more than 20 times your original investment. But if you missed those key 30 days and earned only 14.58%, you’d have just R1 521.17. That’s a 27% lower return – despite missing only 0.5% of all trading days.
This is the danger of panic-selling. The best days often follow the worst – and they’re easy to miss if you’re sitting on the sidelines.
Why staying the course works
Markets don’t rise in a straight line. They react to news, policy changes, political noise, and economic data. That’s normal. What’s also normal is recovery. In fact, some of the strongest market gains happen in the middle of volatility.
In April this year, the S&P 500 posted a one-day gain of 9.5% – its biggest daily rally in 17 years. That came just days after its sharpest decline. By early July, markets were up over 25% from their April lows. That entire turnaround happened in under 90 days.
Timing that kind of recovery is next to impossible. Even seasoned professionals rarely get it right. Which is why staying invested through market cycles remains the most reliable long-term strategy.
The role of diversification
A well-diversified portfolio can also help you stay the course. Not all parts of the market fall – or rise – at the same time. In April, industrial and value stocks took a hit, but tech and AI-led firms recovered faster, driving the broader rally.
Diversification spreads your risk across asset classes, sectors, and geographies. That way, you’re not overly exposed to any single shock – and more likely to benefit when markets bounce back.
Focus on your plan, not the noise
It’s understandable to feel anxious during market swings, especially when politics and policy seem to drive volatility. But the most important decision you can make is to stick to your plan.
Review your goals. Revisit your time horizon. Speak to your advisor if needed. But don’t let short-term fear dictate a long-term financial strategy.
Final thought
The biggest risk most investors face isn’t the next crash. It’s missing the next recovery. As history shows, markets reward patience and discipline. Staying invested, staying diversified, and avoiding knee-jerk decisions are what separate successful long-term investors from the rest.
So, the next time markets dip and headlines shout, remember this: missing the best 30 days could cost you nearly half your returns over 20 years.
That’s a price no long-term investor should be willing to pay.
* Leslie Greyling is a financial advisor at Brenthurst Fourways.
Megan joined the Brenthurst Wealth team in March 2026 as an Administrative and Fiduciary Services Assistant at our Val de Vie Office in the Western Cape. Prior to joining Brenthurst, Megan gained three years of experience in the retail sector, where she developed management and client service skills.
I obtained my National Diploma in Financial Information Systems from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in 1999 and have worked in the wealth management industry since January 2000. Over the years, I have gained extensive experience in various roles, including Portfolio Manager Assistant, Planner Assistant, and Paraplanner.
Esmarelda Isaacs-Andreas joined the Brenthurst Wealth Stellenbosch office in October 2025, taking on the dual role of Receptionist and Fiduciary Administrator.
I obtained my National Diploma in Financial Information Systems from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in 1999 and have worked in the wealth management industry since January 2000. Over the years, I have gained extensive experience in various roles, including Portfolio Manager Assistant, Planner Assistant, and Paraplanner.
Ashley joined Brenthurst Wealth in January 2025 as Office Administrative Assistant and Receptionist for the Stellenbosch Office.
René Heystek joined Brenthurst Wealth in November 2023, as receptionist and administrative assistant in the newly established George/Garden Route office.
Michelle Heystek has built a career in the financial services over the last two decades, after obtaining her B.Com degree in Financial Management in 2005. Once she joined Brenthurst in 2006, she continued her academic journey, obtaining her Certificate in Wealth Management from INSETA in 2007, followed by a Postgraduate Diploma in Financial Planning from the University of the Free State. In 2008, she earned the Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) designation.
Anelle joined Brenthurst Wealth as a Receptionist and Administrative Assistant to Brian Butchart in the Cape Town office in December 2023. She has a wealth of knowledge from working as a liaison between Financial Advisers and clients at TMA and Absa Investment Management Services (Aims) since 1998. She obtained her B. com degree from the University of Port Elizabeth in 1997.
ADMITTED ATTORNEY | FINANCIAL PLANNER & HEAD OF BRENTHURST FOURWAYS
Sanet was appointed in April 2020, joining our Cape Town team as an Executive Administration Assistant to Renee Eagar. She has been in the financial services industry since 1990. Her previous experience includes positions at Sanlam, BJM and ABSA. She spent her last 12 years working at Alexander Forbes Private Client Wealth as a Senior Wealth Management Assistant. She has received numerous accolades over the years which include but not limited to, Alexander Forbes Client Service Excellence – Silver award in 2014,2015 and 2017. Sanet has also obtained her Certificate in Wealth Management (NQF 5) in 2012 and achieved “Best Student of the Year” from Moonstone.
Maria Smit is a Certified Financial Planner® with over 10 years of experience in the financial planning industry.
