How to think clearly about performance in 2026

By Roné van der Merwe*

As we head into 2026, it’s a good time to reflect on your investment decisions. What’s working, what needs attention, and what you might need to rethink.

A question that often comes up, directly or indirectly is: How did my investments do? And isn’t it better to just pick the investment with the best return?

It’s an understandable question. Especially if you see that other funds or asset classes have done better than yours. But return, on its own, doesn’t tell the whole story. In fact, making decisions based on past performance alone can quietly pull you off course.

That’s why it helps to remember the timeless warning: past performance is no indication of future returns.

With that lesson fresh in our minds, let’s take a look at how to choose investments that actually serve your goals in 2026 and beyond.

Return is only one part of the picture

We all want strong performance. No one invests to go backwards. But chasing return without understanding what drives it, or whether it fits your strategy, is risky.

A fund that delivered 15% last year might have taken on significantly more risk to get there. Or it could be concentrated in one sector or region that happened to do well.

Look at how well locally-listed gold stocks have done in 2025 on the back of the gold price shooting the lights out. But you have to ask: Is that return repeatable? Is it aligned with what I need?

What really matters when selecting investments

If you’re already planning for 2026 and beyond, these are the questions worth asking:

1. What am I investing for?
   Is this money for retirement, a second property, or your child’s education? Each goal has its own timeline, liquidity needs and growth targets.

2. When will I need the money?
   The longer your time horizon, the more risk you can generally afford to take. If you’ll need the money within three years, protecting capital may be more important than chasing growth.

3. How comfortable am I with volatility?
   Be honest. Some people say they’re fine with ups and downs, but panic when markets fall. Your investment should reflect what you can live with.

4. What return do I actually need?
   Sometimes a balanced fund delivering 8% is doing exactly what it should. If your plan is built around that, chasing a fund that returned 14% last year might add risk without real benefit.

5. What are you paying in fees?
   Higher returns often come with higher costs. Make sure you’re comparing net returns – the amount that actually lands in your portfolio after fees and taxes.

6. Are you diversified?
   No single investment should carry the weight of your whole plan. A strong portfolio spreads risk across asset classes, geographies and sectors.

7. Do you understand the investment?
   If you don’t know what’s driving performance, or what could affect it, then it’s not the right place for your money.

Planning for 2026

It’s easy to feel pressure when you see performance tables or hear what others are investing in. But top-performing funds alone won’t help you reach your goals. You need a strategy that’s consistent, suitable and able to weather different market cycles.

So before making changes based on return alone, take a step back. Look at your full picture. Is your portfolio aligned with your goals, your risk appetite and your timeline?

If yes, then you’re probably on the right track. If not, this is the perfect time to adjust.

The right investment is the one that fits

Let 2026 be the year you stop searching for ‘the best return’, and start building around what really matters. That might mean rebalancing. It might mean sitting tight. It might mean getting advice to help clarify your next step.

Returns matter. But they matter most when viewed in context. The right investment isn’t always the one that did best last year. It’s the one that gets you where you want to go.

* Roné van der Merwe is a para-planner to André Basson, Suzean Haumann & Aidan Freswick, based at Brenthurst Wealth Belville.